Once again Rhoads fails to present a case for John Kerry as a president. In Rhoads' email to me, he asked if I was getting bored with CwR. My answer was no. After reading Rhoads' posts during my hiatus, the answer is yes. Too much
argumentum ad hominem, too much faith in CBS News, and too much faith that John Kerry will win in November.
I'll give Rhoads credit for highlighting a significant difference between the people who will vote for Bush and the people who won't (including those who choose to make their non-Bush vote a Kerry vote). Rhoads says that the key difference is that people not voting for Bush don't see the war in Iraq as part of the war on terror. I think that's right. He says that people who do see the war in Iraq as part of the war on terror are under the spell of Bush marketing and propaganda (
argumentum ad hominem). Even though Rhoads carves out an obvious and critical distinction between the Bush and non-Bush camps, he cannot resist the
argumentum ad hominem. Disappointing.
At the risk of having my person attacked rather than the arguments I present, I'll reproduce the substance of
Rhoads' post below on the Iraq-war on terror connection, or lack thereof:
I think that Novak is wrong in the first part of his statement, in that many liberals (myself included) DO want (if not like) the war on terror. That is to say, we do believe that it is the responsibility of our government to do its best to prevent future terrorist attacks against the United States. In the second part of his sentence, however, he says that we "refuse to see the vividly clear connection between the two." That is because THERE IS NONE.
I don't have time to post the hyper links, but let me summarize why I think Rhoads is wrong.
I think that we in the civilized world are under attack, a declared jihad, from radical Islamists who want to kill all infidels. These radical Islamists have killed innocent people in the name of their religious cause for roughly thirty years. The U.S. has been the target of these attacks going back to at least the 1980s. Israel has been the target of these attacks for longer than that. Murders of civilians in east Africa, Jakarta, Afghanistan, Spain, Italy, Russia, the Phillipines, and on and on have been part and parcel of a global war that as of September 11, 2001 the U.S. began to take seriously.
The first retalliatory battle waged by the U.S. and its allies in this global war (aside from missile strikes in places like Iraq, Sudan, Afghanistan, Libya, etc. in years past) was in Afghanistan. The next battle was waged in Iraq. Rhoads denies a connection between the two. I'll examine his reasons below. Suffice to say that I think there is ample reason to think that the war in Iraq is part of the global war on terror, or the war against radical Islamists. Why do I say that?
Our government has said so. Absent some very broad conspiracy, I don't think that the president, the congress (including Mssrs Kerry and Edwards), and very many outside analysts would have said that ousting Saddam and attempting to establish democracy in the Middle East was part of a war on terror if that were not the case. This may be a poor strategy or a poor tactic at this time. But I don't think that all these people made false public statements to intentionally mislead us into a war. Rhoads apparently thinks that.
I think Saddam did provide safe haven for Islamist terrorists of all stripes within Iraq
I think there is reason to believe Saddam diverted Oil for Food money to terrorists
I think the fact that Saddam used WMD (specifically chemical weapons) against his own people and invaded his neighbors demonstrated that he was a threat to the world outside his borders
I think that Iraq attempted to acquire uranium from Africa, demonstrating an interest in nuclear weapons.
To me the cost of removing Saddam and the liberation of Iraq is justified by the benefits gained, specifically: removing Saddam (and Uday and Qusay) from power and permanently removing one particular threat, beginning the process of democratization in the Middle East, sending a message to other tyrants (Quaddaffi, e.g.) that there is no more free reign of terror inside "sovereign" borders, bringing the fight to the radical Islamist terrorists in a place and at a time of our choosing rather than theirs, removing one more safe-haven for training, funding and organizing for radical Islamist terrorists.
Rhoads continues:
There are no WMDs.
I agree. We and the rest of the western intelligence agencies failed in our intelligence gathering efforts regarding the development of WMD in Iraq. I think that the cost of going in and finding that their were no WMD is less than the cost of not going in and finding out the hard way (sooner or later) that there were. But I'll concede that we were wrong on WMD in Iraq, especially as to specific locations, specific weapons and so forth.
The 9/11 commission report states very clearly that there was no direct connection betweem Saddam Hussein and the events of 9/11.
Note the careful wording of Rhoads' point: "The 9/11 commission report states
very clearly that there was no
direct connection betweem
Saddam Hussein and the events of
9/11." [bold added by Bob]. The report very clearly finds no direct (how about indirect?) connections between Saddam Hussein (any other Iraqi agents or surrogates? -- for the record I'm not convinced that Iraqis played a role in 9/11, but I'm not sure they didn't) and 9/11 (what about Iraqi involvement in other acts of terror carried out by radical Islamists?). I don't think the 9/11 commission statement is quite as emphatic on the lack of any connections between Iraq and the global war against radical Islamists as Rhoads' statement implies.
And we are no longer even fighting Saddam Hussein. And as far as I am concerned, even if Saddam were in power (and I think it is a good thing for the world that he is not) I do not think that the terroist threat against the United States would be any higher than it is now. In fact, I tend to believe folks like Richard Clarke, whom the president discounted, who say that the threat may even be higher now that we have attacked Iraq than if we had not.
Maybe. I guess we won't know that. We do know that since we attacked Afhanistan and Iraq, we have not been attacked by radical Islamist terrorists. We do know that Spain and Russia have been attacked quite recently. We probably will be attacked in the future. This war is not over.
George W. Bush misled us into a bad war. The ends do not justify the means in this case. I don't blame him entirely, though. Congress should never have handed over the authority to declare war to him in the first place.
I disagree that Bush "misled" us into anything. For what it's worth (certainly not much to Rhoads) John Edwards doesn't think so either. But just because I or Edwards or any number of people think something it doesn't make us right. Rhoads has his opinion and he's clearly not going to be swayed. Fair enough. That's why he's not voting for Bush.
I think there are reasonable disagreements to be had with Bush on the war in Iraq. I've seen plenty of pieces pro and con on whether that was the right tactic, whether it was planned well, whether the troop levels and make-up were right for the invasion and afterwards, whether the goal of democracy is realistic or not for Iraq, whether this engagement stretches us too thin, costs too much (in lives and dollars), whether things are going poorly or well over there right now, the nature and issues surrounding modern warfare, the nature and issues surrounding intelligence in this modern war, and so forth. I'm not expert in any of this, but I have been reading a lot about most of this over the last few years. I conclude that George W. Bush is committed to fighting and winning this global war against radical Islamists. I cannot conclude that about John F. Kerry. I have trouble concluding much about John Kerry, maybe that's his goal. But given what I know about the two candidates, and the presidency of one, I'm voting for Bush in November.
No, the Iowa Electronic Markets (and
other vote markets) don't decide elections. Neither do opinion polls. But the markets are not jus "as good as" any other method of predicting the results ahead of time. Based upon history and research, they are better. In any case, the polls also show Bush winning. The state by state polls and markets show Bush with a lead, a growing lead, in the likely electoral college votes. New Jersey and Illinois, once considered extremely safe Kerry states (still considered pretty safe in the electronic markets) are now statistical dead heats in the polls. Iowa is very close. Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona, at one time considered toss up states are now pretty clearly in the Bush column.
Is that because Kerry is a bad candidate? Without even going into specifics (e.g. stealing a Howard Dean line-"wrong war at the wrong time" that he had previously criticized strikes me as dumb) of Kerry's positions (can you succintly state his position on Iraq?), he is a liberal (strike one) senator (strike two) from a liberal northeastern state (strike three). That combination has proven to be electoral suicide for Democrats for a generation. That makes Kerry a bad candidate, and a bad nominee, aside from the many policy disagreements I and others may have with him. From the perspective of a party that wants desperately to win back the White House, I judge Kerry to be a poor nominee. What are your reasons for judging him not to be a bad candidate or a bad nominee?
Can Kerry rally? Anything's possible. I deal in the probable. I'm moving on to productive things like the issues, not Kerry vs. Bush. To me, the 2004 presidential campaign is now boring.