Friday, April 16, 2004

I don't see it shifting at all

So far the only really huge lie I have alledged against George W. Bush is when he and his gang (Rumsfeld, Cheney, et al said that there was certainty that Saddam Hussein possesed WMD and that he was an imminent threat to ME! At that point I said "then go get 'em - but be right" and they went and were wrong (or so it appears today). That could be just incompetency, but I don't think it was. I think that they just really really really wanted to get rid of Saddam Hussein, which certainly was a debatible issue, but was not the one with which we were presented in my opinion.

And sorry Bob, but even though you say:
I believe the connection between Hussein and terrorism (Abu Nidal, et al) is too well documented for Rhoads to contest.

I say that I am still not convinced of that. Sorry. I know that is a fundamental difference between us. But as far as I am concerned, I haven't seen that connection proven.

Air America

My understanding of the Air America dispute with its affiliates in Chicago and LA is as Rhoads describes it. I'm not troubled by Air America going to court to get their contract enforced. It's their right and they should do it. It is funny that they have to buy air time to get their shows on the radio. I guess there's not much commercial support for the radical left. Imagine that. Or maybe their programming is poor. Who knows?

I am disturbed by the reference to Air America suggesting they settle the dispute by taking a crowbar to Mr. Liu's head. I could not find any reference to that on the Air America web site and Neal Boortz (shame) did not provide a link.

Shifting definition of lie

There is no doubt that George Bush was telling the American public that Hussein was trying to build nuclear weapons. That was the consensus of opinion prior to our invasion, and it's still not clear what happened to their nuclear weapons program.

There is also no doubt that George Bush did not say that Hussein "was making nuclear weapons" as Rhoads says. The whole point of the WMD angle of invading Iraq was to prevent Iraq from making nuclear weapons. That's made clear in the State of the Union speech that Rhoads links to.

There is also no doubt that George Bush did not say that "Iraq was purchasing uranium from Africa" as Dean said. Rhoads acknowledges that and even quotes the passage where Bush does not say that.

Rhoads took a pass on contesting this whopper from Dean (via Boortz):
"That Saddam Hussein had something to do with terrorism, which was not true." 
Come on, Howard.  Saddam was making a big deal of writing checks to the families of suicide bombers.
I believe the connection between Hussein and terrorism (Abu Nidal, et al) is too well documented for Rhoads to contest.

Rhoads also passed on this Deanism and Boortz retort:
"When the Vice President said that in Iraq they are accumulating nuclear weapons, which was not true."
I can find no instance where Cheney said that Iraq was accumulating nuclear weapons, only that Saddam was attempting to do so.
Boortz gets that one right, too. Dean got that one wrong.

The connection between Iraq and al Qaeda may not have been proved as Boortz suggested. But the Clinton Administration (and Richard Clarke) thought the link was strong enough that they bombed an aspirin factory in Sudan to prevent Iraqi nerve gas experts from conspiring with bin Laden to make chemical weapons.

Let me see if I've got the shifting definition of "lie" correct. Bush lied when he relied on the consensus of civilized intelligence and concluded that Iraq either had or was attempting to acquire WMD before we invaded. Howard Dean lied and it's just politics as usual.

It does look like a political defintion of the word lie.

African Uranium

Ok, Mr. Boortz (who is this guy?) says this:
"When he said in the State of the Union that Iraq was purchasing uranium from Africa, which was not true."  
            George Bush never made that statement.  Dean is lying, and he knows he's lying.  Why didn't the CNN interviewer call him on this?

Well, I kinda remember that the president talked about African Uranium in his State of the Union, but I wasn't sure, so I found the State of the Union text and see this:
The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed in the 1990s that Saddam Hussein had an advanced nuclear weapons development program, had a design for a nuclear weapon and was working on five different methods of enriching uranium for a bomb. The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa. Our intelligence sources tell us that he has attempted to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes suitable for nuclear weapons production. Saddam Hussein has not credibly explained these activities. He clearly has much to hide.

Now I will grant you that there is a difference between "sought" and "bought" but there is no doubt in my mind that the intent was to let us know that Saddam Hussein was making nuclear weapons, which apparently was not true, and I believe that British Intelligence has admitted that their intelligence is faulty. So although I didn't see Howard Dean, and I don't really care for him too much, I can see that perhaps his statement was not a lie - just politics as usual.

BRG Blog

Good to see that the BRG has branched out with its own Blog. I read about half of the Davey Crockett story - I will read the rest when I have more time.

I don't know who Neal Boortz is, but it appears that he may be misrepresenting the case of AirAmerica vs. Arthur Liu. According to AirAmerica, Mr. Liu sold them some air time which they were not going to use for a couple of months and then resold it (sublet it??) to someone else when they weren't using it. This was in Los Angeles. So they put a stop on a check until they resolve that issue. When they did that, he pulled the plug on them in both LA and Chicago, which he should not have done because they were on separate contracts, and they were paid with separate checks, and Chicago was all paid.

So maybe AirAmerica is just doing liberal whining, and maybe Mr. Liu is in breach of contract in Chicago. If the latter, would Neal Boortz be in favor of them actually being able to take the case to court, and as is the case in Chicago - getting an injuction to be able to go back on the air? I would hope so. Contracts are important.

This other thing caught me eye in Mr. Boortz's blog:
Dean said the president was not telling the truth when he said:


"There was a connection between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda, which was not true." 
             In fact, it was true.  Those connections have now been proven.

Well I know that Bob believes that the connections have now been proven, but I still have my doubts. At least I haven't seen what I consider sufficient proof. But maybe I don't want to see proof. And maybe it doesn't really exist. Hmm.

Times have changed

The Constitution has been amended a few times since David Crockett's time, but how folks understand it has changed even more. Here's a story titled "David Crockett, Charity and Congress" that appeared in 1884.

One contractor's take on Iraq

Here's a must read, via Instapundit.

UPDATE: Here's a link by a private security guard working in Iraq. He's not pleased with how his type are portrayed in an article in Slate (linked in the post).

Al Franken, Neal Boortz calling

Neal Boortz isn't too pleased with what he heard Howard Dean saying on CNN today. Seems like maybe Dean lied. More than once.

Also from Boortz, the rhetoric and tactics of Air America Radio regarding their "affiliate" in Chicago don't sound to pleasant, either.

Al Franken should get on both of these issues.

Blogger radio

We wouldn't be the first blogger raido show. These guys didn't just stream, they got a Minneapolis radio station to air their show for three hours each Saturday.

We're on the air

Well not yet, but maybe soon. First Air America hit the airwaves. Now the NRA is going on the air. It looks like we have McCain-Feingold to thank.

Can a Coffee With Rhoads streaming broadcast be far behind? It could mean press credentials for us. Free sporting events!

Thursday, April 15, 2004

Good liberals

In today's New York Times and New York Daily News two good liberals step to the plate with reasonable opinion pieces on Iraq and the war on terror. So here are two cheers for Paul Berman in the Times and Stanley Crouch in the Daily News.

Clash of Favorites

Air America blasts Instapundit.

Pass the sunscreen

Count me in. I'm for open government, too, as long as it doesn't compromise the privacy of people, the security of the nation, or hinder the ability of the country to get input from knowledgable sources.

I wish Mr. Podesta had felt this way when Hillary Clinton started her behind closed doors health care meetings, too. But that would have been too much to ask.

Consequently, I'm skeptical of the motivations of Podesta and the organizers of this project. Podesta is too clearly a political animal to believe his motives now are not simply to hurt the current administration to get his party back into power. I worked in Washington briefly and I'm afraid I know how these people (in both parties) think and act. What do you suppose the motivation is for this document request:
3. A list of the contaminants found in the sources of our drinking water.
It may be that Mr. Podesta is truly interested in the safety of the drinking water. However, given the ability of modern instruments to measure very, very small amounts of substances I predict this is an attempt to scare people into thinking the Bush Administration is trying to kill people. This despte the Bush Administration having tightened the water quality standards to levels well cleaner than the Clinton Administration advocated until December of 2000. That is as they were heading out the door. It's all politics.

This particular request bugs me because I see this as evidence that science is being politicized. Both the Clinton Administration and the Bush Administration have been guilty of this. The EPA under Clinton was admonished for scientific fraud by a federal judge. The Bush Administration's position on stem cell research and science in general is weak.

That all being said, I do support the principle that Podesta is advocating in the piece Rhoads linked to below.

Let the sunshine in

One of the things that good liberals dislike the most about the current presidential administration is that they seem to be way too secretive> Now I understand the need for secrets to help protect national security, but I think that much of their secrecy is just to protect their pals (like Ken Lay, e.g.).

Here is a good article by John D. Podesta explaining the resentment that this causes in the liberal community. The last paragraph really gets to the point for me:
This penchant for secrecy undermines America's founding principles. Without reasonable access to government information, the public is unable to evaluate whether the administration is behaving responsibly and in the public interest. Excessive secrecy undercuts confidence in the workings of our government. It's time to let the sunshine in.

Wednesday, April 14, 2004

Sources please

Rhoads links to an essay from CAP on tax burdens. My first question as I read the piece, "What are your sources?"

A lowly blogger in a garden appartment already covered this here on CwR, with sources (see my prior posts here, here, and here). How hard is that for a bigshot at CAP?

Here's the CAP piece again:
Consider: The top 1 percent of America's taxpayers earn 17 percent of the income and pay 23 percent of federal taxes; the top 5 percent earn 31 percent of the income and pay 40 percent of the taxes; the bottom 80 percent of the earners make 41 percent of the income and pay 31 percent of the taxes (and those numbers are from 2001, the most recent such data available; President Bush's tax cuts have since made the burden on top earners lower). In other words, in aggregate, we have a modestly progressive federal tax system.
Those figures look about like the one's I've cited in my prior posts. As I said, I support a modestly progressive federal (state and local) tax system. What I pointed out, and what I think is worth considering, is that (based upon the figures I cited in prior posts) 40% of the taxpayers pay 83.5% of the federal taxes (all taxes considered as the CAP fellow rightly suggests tax burdens should be calculated). They earn roughly 70-73% of the income, so they should pay more than the lower 60%. The danger is that the 60%, being a solid electoral majority, may be tempted to vote themselves more and more of the money of the 40% through increased taxes on "the rich" and lower taxes on "the poor."

Fortunately, in this country those in the lower quintiles don't view themselves as likely to stay in the lower quintiles for very long. That leads to a more rational tax system than we might expect once we start using taxes on income. The danger is there, though, if people start believing that it's "us" against "them" that the system will get out of control.

I don't think our tax code is as nutty as it was thirty and forty years ago (when John F. Kennedy lowered the marginal rates and slashed capital gains tax rates). But it needs simplifying. I'm with Bill Bradley when he said (in an ESPN ad, of course) that taxes need to raise money in the least intrusive, the least disruptive way. Taxes on income and capital strike me as more destructive of wealth creation (which we should all favor) than consumption taxes. I realize there's an argument that consumption and income are just two sides of the same coin and it doesn't matter which you tax. I'm not persuaded by that argument. I think a consumption tax is less intrusive and less destructive of the productive capacity of a society than are taxes on income and capital.

Repeal the Income Tax Amendment! Then bring on the National Sales Tax!

Phew, they paid

I got the Air America link to open. Nothing yet on the frequency for Boulder. Do we have any ethnic stations for them to push off the air here? My guess is they show up on 1490, Boulder's only AM radio station.

Why the Right's Wrong on Taxes

Here is a article on the real story on Federal taxes. The statistics in it include the numbers for payroll taxes- both employee paid and employer paid. This is my favorite paragraph:
Consider: The top 1 percent of America's taxpayers earn 17 percent of the income and pay 23 percent of federal taxes; the top 5 percent earn 31 percent of the income and pay 40 percent of the taxes; the bottom 80 percent of the earners make 41 percent of the income and pay 31 percent of the taxes (and those numbers are from 2001, the most recent such data available; President Bush's tax cuts have since made the burden on top earners lower). In other words, in aggregate, we have a modestly progressive federal tax system.
Doesn't seem all that unfair to me, although the latest Bush tax cuts will shift it to make it less regressive. Too bad.

Dang that English

I don't think that BOB holds Kerry in contempt. I think that Bob thinks that the troops would hold Kerry in contempt. I think that, because Bob said so. That's why I used that expression. However, I can see the reason for the confusion.

But I also believe that reasonable people are capable of not holding a president in contempt, even if they voted for someone else.

I, for example, did not hold George W. Bush in contempt until he betrayed my trust. Now I do. But I gave him the benefit of the doubt for a while.

Did they pay their bill?

I couldn't open the link. Did Air America pay the web hosting bill?

Why in the world didn't Air America start out in Boulder? I guess there are few people to convert here. If the link ever opens I'll add the station to my headset radio settings. Right now I wear out 560AM. That would be ESPN Radio, baby!

We do have XM Radio, but I don't think the tuner goes to anything but 140. That would be ESPN Radio, baby!

AirAmerica coming to Boulder

Hey! AirAmerica radio is coming to Boulder! Yoo hoo!

(Although I think they have XM radio at the BRG, so they can tune into channel 167. I of course have to use the internet.

Contempt for Kerry? Moi?

For now Kerry's a good source of comedy for me: his looks, the things he says, that sort of thing. How could I feel contempt for a guy who cracks me up just looking at him?

While I don't feel contempt for Kerry (yet, I may tire of him as time goes on) I think the term "contempt" captures the feeling of Lt. Gen. Hudson and a lot of military people. The majority? I can't say, obviously, but I'd bet contempt captures it. Considering that the military people have voted overwhelmingly Republican since, well, since about the time John Kerry returned from Vietnam and accused American soldiers of being murderers and since the time the Democratic Party nominated George McGovern, my guess is that the majority of military people, active and retired, do not support John Kerry and will not vote for him.

So Kerry may be the sort of guy Rhoads would support if he were in the military, but that tells us more about Rhoads than it does about military people.

I'm hardly a military brat, but I do have some relatives who wore the uniform:

Dad, USN
Uncle, USMC
Uncle, USN
Cousin, USMC
Cousin-in-Law, USN
Uncle-in-Law, USAF

Veterans: 6
Kerry voters: 0

Small sample size, but like I said above, the military folks have voted Republican for a long time. Why do you think Gore worked so hard to get their ballots tossed out in Florida?

Lt Gen Hudson

Hmmm. I wonder if this could be your guy. At any rate, I don't know that Gen. Hudson's statements are factual, that they are not highly exaggerated, and that he speaks for the entire military establishment. Hence I don't necessarily think that the troops will hold President Kerry in contempt, as you do. But I really don't know. What I do know is that if I were a troop in war time, I would prefer a command-in-chief who actually served the last time we were in a major war operation to one who used his political contacts to avoid actual combat service. But that's just me.

McCain loses support over Kerry comment

Below is the first paragraph of a letter sent to Senator John McCain from John I. Hudson, Lieutenant General, U.S. Marine Corps (Retired):
I am very disappointed in your statement yesterday (March 18th) that Senator Kerry is not weak on defense issues. Senator Kerry has voted against just about every major new weapons system, voted against most military pay raises, voted against the building of new housing for our troops and their families, voted to reduce spending for intelligence efforts. As far back as 1994 Senator Kerry voted to practically "gut" defense and spending for intelligence. At that time he was taken to task by his fellow Democrats, Senators Inouye, Byrd and DiConcini: but you say he is not weak on defense issues. Will you please tell me who, in the U.S. Senate, has a worse voting record regarding defense, support for our service personnel and support for our national intelligence than Senator Kerry?
Ouch. As I said earlier, senators have trouble winning the White House. They have records on issues of importance that hurt them with significant subsets of the voting public.

The letter concludes:
The greatest disappointment though, Senator, is that your reckless statements now become a threat to the security of our country. I can think of no greater harm to our nation at this crucial time than to have a shameless charlatan like John Kerry to be elected president. Unfortunately, Senator McCain, the Democrats are correct in referring to you as their favorite Republican: you could do no better job for them nor worse for our country.
Earlier Gen. Hudson said he would no longer support Sen. McCain for any public office.

McCain isn't the issue, though. Kerry is. If this is any indication of how military people feel about John Kerry, I find it hard to believe he'd be a good president in times of war. Clinton was certainly not loved by the military, and the world didn't come to an end during his two terms. We'd probably survive Kerry, too. But I don't think it's desirable for the fighting troops to have such contempt for their Commander-in-Chief.

It could be that this letter is an urban legend. It was forwarded to me by my uncle, a retired colonel in the USMC. He got it from a retired Marine friend. My uncle doesn't personally know Hudson, but knew of him while both served in the Corps. That's usually the sort of lineage that indicates you're dealing with an urban legend. I've checked Snopes.com and Googled this letter for a few weeks (since I received it) and it hasn't shown up on any of the debunking sites. I found other references to Lt. Gen. Kelly living in Arizona (where the letter comes from), so for now I'll assume it's legit. Regardless, since my uncle and his friend are both retired military, I don't find it hard to assume that this letter, which my uncle and his friend both chose to spread via email, represents their views and the views of the many military retirees.

Since I don't think Kerry will win many states, this won't be a big issue. But if I'm wrong, it could be a rough four years unless Kerry changes his stripes in office. That's always possible. The office must have a sobering effect.

Babies and Air America

Hey, at least there is something to balance out Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly.

Ones and Zeros

Thanks, Bob for the binary explaination. It took me a while to realize that you were using binary coded decimal (BCD). At first I thought you were saying 145, but now I see you were saying 0x91 (actually 0x091).

I assume you mean 1991.

And again we are in agreement that we attacked Iraq because of 1991. I just don't think that revenge makes for good foreign policy. Go Kerry!

Mamas don't let your babies...

...grow up to listen to Air America.

It'll erode whatever reading or listening skills they once had.

010010001

Is it easier for you to read things in 0s and 1s?

The first Q&A

Q: Mr. President, April is turning into the deadliest month in Iraq since the fall of Baghdad, and some people are comparing Iraq to Vietnam and talking about a quagmire. Polls show that support for your policy is declining and that fewer than half Americans now support it.

What does that say to you? And how do you answer the Vietnam comparison?

BUSH: I think the analogy is false. I also happen to think that analogy sends the wrong message to our troops and sends the wrong message to the enemy.

Look, this is hard work. It's hard to advance freedom in a country that has been strangled by tyranny. And yet we must stay the course because the end result is in our nation's interest.

A secure and free Iraq is an historic opportunity to change the world and make America more secure. A free Iraq in the midst of the Middle East will have incredible change.

It's hard. Freedom is not easy to achieve. I mean we had a little trouble in our own country achieving freedom.

And we've been there a year. I know that seems like a long time. It seems like a long time to the loved ones whose troops have been overseas. But when you think about where the country has come from, it's a relatively short period of time.

And we're making progress. There's no question it's been a tough, tough series of weeks for the American people. It's been really tough for the families. I understand that. It's been tough on this administration. But we're doing the right thing.

And as to whether or not I made decisions based upon polls, I don't. I just don't make decisions that way. I fully understand the consequences of what we're doing. We're changing the world, and the world will be better off and America will be more secure as a result of the actions we're taking.

Asked. Answered.

UPDATE: And the second Q&A:
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President. What's your best prediction on how long U.S. troops will have to be in Iraq? And it sounds like you will have to add some troops. Is that a fair assessment?

BUSH: Well, first of all, that's up to General Abizaid, and he's clearly indicating that he may want more troops. It's coming up through the chain of command. And if that's what he wants, that's what he gets.

Generally, we've had about a 115,000 troops in Iraq. There's 135,000 now as a result of the changeover from one division to the next.

If he wants to keep troops there to help, I'm more than willing to say, "Yes, General Abizaid."

I talk to General Abizaid quite frequently. I'm constantly asking him does he have what he needs, whether it be in troop strength or in equipment. He and General Sanchez talk all the time. And if he makes the recommendation, he'll get it.

In terms of how long we'll be there, as long as necessary, and not one day more. The Iraqi people need us there to help with security. They need us there to fight off these, you know, violent few, who are doing everything they can to resist the advance of freedom. And I mentioned who they are.

And as I mentioned in my opening remarks, our commanders on the ground have got the authorities necessary to deal with violence, and will — will in firm fashion.

And that's what by far the vast majority of the Iraqis want. They want security so they can advance toward a free society.

Once we transfer sovereignty, we'll enter into a security agreement with the government to which we pass sovereignty, the entity to which we pass sovereignty. And we'll need to be there for a while.

We'll also need to continue training the Iraqi troops. I was disappointed in the performance of some of the troops.

Some of the units performed brilliantly. Some of them didn't. And we need to find out why. If they're lacking in equipment, we'll get them equipment. If there needs to be more intense training, we'll get more intense training.

But eventually, Iraq's security is going to be handled by the Iraqi people themselves.

Nah

I don't like any politician that much.

Here's the whole thing

Virginia Postrel wrote:
George W. Bush is not the most articulate of men, but he is really good at one kind of speech: laying out in simple language the way he's thought through a policy decision. He most famously did that on stem cell research. Tonight's speech opening the press conference was another good example. If you've only seen snippets, I recommend reading, watching, or listening to the whole thing. Here's the conclusion:
She then blockquotes the final eight full paragraphs of Bush's prepared speech. Followed by this conclusion:
In the Q&A, Bush was much more expansive, articulate, and comfortable than he's often been in the past.
So let's go over this slowly, in fine Princeton preceptorial fashion:

"George Bush is not the most articulate of men,
No argument there, but not commenting on his presentation or content, yet.

but he is really good at one kind of speech: laying out in simple language the way he's thought through a policy decision.
So he's "really good at one kind of speech." I consider "really good" to be "high praise." Perhaps Rhoads disagrees. Let's see if she applies this praise to Bush's speech last night.

He most famously did that on stem cell research.
Not about last night's speech.

Tonight's speech opening the press conference was another good example.
So Bush's speech was "a good example" of "one kinid of speech" that Bush is "really good at." Seems reasonable to say she was offering high praise to last night's speech. Perhaps "praise" is better. Afterall he didn't go beyond anything he'd ever done before. Fair enough. But I consider "really good" to be "high praise" as I said before. I don't think that's too hard to defend as reasonable.

If you've only seen snippets, I recommend reading, watching, or listening to the whole thing. Here's the conclusion:"
So Virginia recommends that you read, watch, or listen to the whole speech, a speech that she calls "really good" and from which she then reproduces the eight concluding paragraphs.

No, she didn't say, "I highly praise Bush's speech. I offer high praise for the presentation and the content." Being a Princeton grad, I guess Virginia figured her readers could figure that out. I get no indication from what she wrote or block quoted that she did not think highly of what Bush said in his speech.

"In the Q&A, Bush was much more expansive, articulate, and comfortable than he's often been in the past."
In the past he hasn't been too good in similar situations, according to Virginia, but last night he "was much more expansive, articulate, and comfortable." How high this praise is depends upon your opinion of how Bush has done in the past, and how well you think Virginia thought he would do.

I guess "praise" may have been safer than "high praise," but I think my original take stands up to reasonable scrutiny.

Send more

If Rhoads isn't at the legal limit, maybe this news will prompt him to send John Kerry more cash.

A first for Rhoads

I have never contributed to a politician before. However, I am so scared to have George W. Bush continue as our president that I sent money to the Kerry campaign. I got this nice letter in response:
Dear Rhoads,

I wanted to write and thank you again for your generous contribution
to my campaign. While I am certain you are asked to give to many
causes, your commitment to my campaign and to the larger political
process is humbling and much appreciated.

Your support remains crucial to my efforts and I trust that I can
count on your continued friendship and counsel.

Once again, thank you for your support.

Warm regards,


John F. Kerry

Paid for by John Kerry for President, Inc.


He wants my counsel! Right on!

And one more thing

Oh - and we have now reproduced almost all of what Virgina Postrel had to say about the "press conference." I am still wondering how a reasonable person - and I consider Bob to be infintely reasonable - would say that was "high marks." What she said was that he did a good job at what he is good at - giving a speech in plain language. She doesn't comment other than that, as far as I can see, and she certainly doesn't say anything about the content, which was pretty weak, in my opinion.

I wish I could remember her...

I wish I could remember Ms. Inman/Postrel.... I am so bad with names.

She also said this:
In the Q&A, Bush was much more expansive, articulate, and comfortable than he's often been in the past.

If whe really believes that, then her credibilty is pretty bad in my eyes. I thought he was very herky-jerky, nervous, and completely evasive during the Q&A as I mentioned earlier. I challenge you to find a question which he actually answered.

Read much?

Here's what Virginia wrote:
"George W. Bush is not the most articulate of men, but he is really good at one kind of speech: laying out in simple language the way he's thought through a policy decision."

Here's how Rhoads characterized what Virginia wrote:
"George Bush uses simple language because otherwise he wouldn't be able to understand what he is saying.

Wow.

Kids, don't listen to Al Franken or this might happen to you, too.

That's High Marks?

That is "High Marks"?

Wow, I think that what she is saying is exactly the truth: George Bush uses simple language because otherwise he wouldn't be able to understand what he is saying.

Praise for Bush

Charleston native and Princeton alum Virginia Postrel gives George W. Bush high marks for his speech last night, including his handling of the Q&A.

UPDATE: I skipped the speech last night, too, but I just read the Q&A transcript. I was generally satisfied with Bush's answers, though I still don't know why he and Cheney want to appear together at the 9/11 hearings. I was disappointed the reporters seemed to ask one similar question about five different times. That was odd.

9/11 Commission Testimony

Hey, Bush and Cheney should testify before the 9/11 Kangaroo Court. Will Jamie Gorelick still be on the committee?

Money to be made

If Rhoads is right and Kerry is going to win in November, there's money to be made. The roughly 53-47 gap between the Bush and Kerry positions has closed to about 52-48 in the Iowa Electronic Markets. If Rhoads is right, the current market is wrong. Sounds like there's some easy money lying on the street. Will Rhoads pick it up?

UPDATE: If Air America goes down soon, Rhoads may be right afterall. Chuckle. But the longer they stay on the air (in the few cities they're actually on the air) the better for Bush.

Blow Out

I think you are right. I think we will see a blow out in November in the presidential election, but our current president will get an even lower percentage of the actual votes as he did last time (which was pretty low).

Politicians

Well, I didn't get to watch the President's press conference live, but I did catch the rerun on CNN last night, and I am amazed at how much of a politician he is. I know that all politicians - Democrats, Republicans, and others alike - will sidestep questions they don't want to answer, but they will usually do it with a little more finesse than this exchange:
Q. Mr. President, Why are you and the vice president insisting on appearing together before the 9/11 commission? And Mr. President, who will you be handing the Iraqi government over to on June 30?

A. We'll find that out soon. That's what Mr. Brahimi is doing. He's figuring out the nature of the entity we'll be handing sovereignty over. And secondly, because the the 9/11 commission wants to ask us questions. That's why we're meeting, and I look forward to meeting with them and answering their questions.

Q. Mr. President, I was asking why you're appearing together rather than separately, which was their request.

A. Because it's a good chance for both of us to answer questions that the 9/11 commission is looking forward to asking us, and I'm looking forward to answering them.

Let's see. Hold on for a minute. Oh — I've got some must calls, I'm sorry.

Maybe he really isn't that smart.

This sort of thing can't be good for Democrats

Count one more vote for Bush in 2004 that went to Gore in 2000. I'm not much of a political prognosticator, but we could be heading for a blowout in November. Senators have a poor record of winning presidential elections. The last time a liberal from Massachussets was the Democratic nominee I think he won one state. Was VP George HW Bush that much more popular then than President George W Bush is now? He did bask in the afterglow of Reagan, but still. I can't imagine Kerry doing as poorly as Dukakis did in 1988 but you never know.

Monday, April 12, 2004

Guinness: good and good for you

Good news for Rhoads.

The perfect bureaucrat

That's what Daniel Drezner is calling Richard Clarke, "in the best and worst senses of the word." I think Dresner gets it about right.

Corporations and morality

Professor Bainbridge responds to moral criticism of corporate tax dodges:
1. Corporations are not moral actors.
2. Directors and managers owe duties to shareholders rather than society.
3. Directors and officers are obliged to maximize shareholder wealth within the law.
Stephen Bainbridge teaches corporate law at UCLA Law School. He briefly explains each of these assertions in the linked post.

Who we gonna blame?

Jane Galt offers an interesting perspective on the 9/11 hearings.
The problem in general with commissions is that they find what they are tasked to look for. If you appoint a government commission on fairy rings, they'll do their damndest to dig one up, because after all, fairy rings are the reason we're all assembled in this big, important looking room with the columns and the picture of George Washington. That's the first problem I have with this thing.

The second problem is that we are all seeking some reassurance that we can somehow prevent all this stuff in the future. Everyone is very earnestly asking "What changes do we need to make so that our intelligence doesn't (for example) tell us Iraq has WMD, or not tell us that Al-Qaeda's about to attack us?" Almost no one seems prepared to accept the possibility that the answer is "None. Intelligence just sucks." The energy expended trying to blame this failure on someone--George Tenet, Louis Freeh, Condoleezza Rice, or whoever--goes beyond mere regular partisan bashing. It seems to me to express an underlying conviction that of course someone could have stopped this--it's only a question of who. For the commission, especially, it's an unacceptable answer; they simply cannot turn to a frightened American public and tell them that it's really too bad, but we live in a scary world.
There's more, including a look at self-delusion.

This may explain the recent Bush/Kerry divide

Robert Tagorda quotes from a piece by Ron Brownstein (free registration required) regarding the reaction of some focus groups in Florida to a Democratic ad criticizing Bush regarding 9/11. I believe the guy says the people were so angry they almost turned the tables over.

That sort of thing may explain the gap between Bush and Kerry in the Iowa Electronic Markets 2004 Presidential Vote Share prices.

Agents weren't on high alert afterall

This Seattle Times article corrects some errors in Dick Clarke's memoir regarding the apprehension of a guy planning to bomb the LA International Airport back in December of 1999.

FBI and fighting terrorism

Here's the line from the memo regarding the FBI and bin Laden:
The FBI is conducting approximately 70 full field investigations throughout the US that it considers Bin Ladin-related.
I don't know how many agents are involved in a "full field investigation," nor how many such investigations the FBI conducts (hundreds, thousands?) on a regular basis.

Rhoads does raise an interesting question with his hypothetical Bush/Rice dialogue. The question of what strategy the US should use to fight a war on terror is a legitimate question. It's even legitimate to ask if we should even consider it a war (though it's clear the other side does). I think the Clarke position was and is that we should treat terrorism as crime and take the usual measures to prevent crimes and pursue criminals. The Bush position is that terrorism shouldn't be fought in this one-off manner and that to stop terrorism you need to prevent rogue states from supporting and harboring terrorists. I'm not particularly comfortable with either option, but that's the nature of tough problems. Despite our best efforts, some problems don't have solutions.

Oh - and congrats to Lefty

And I also agree with Bob (!!) that the Masters was one of the best in recent memory. To watch the entire field yesterday go from double bogies to strings of birdies was awesome!

Good job, Lefty. Go for the major sweep, now!

It will be awesome to see him swinging from the other side of the ball at Augusta 30 years from now.

The infamous PDB

I agree with Bob (I have to mention that every time it happens outside of the Princeton Basketball world) that it is not clear what conclusions should have been drawn because of the August 6 PDB. However, it is also clear that this was not just an historical document outlining attempts by Osama bin Laden to attack the U.S. on our turf. The word "determined" in the title is not a verb - either past tense or past participle tense - but an adjective. I think that Mr. Clarke (or is it Dr. Clarke?) was trying to convey a sense of urgency about the very real threat that bin Laden posed against the U.S. to an administration which he sensed was not really paying enough attention to what he was saying.

I would love to know more about the context of this memo. In other words, did it just come out of the blue? Or did it happen something like this:
(this is not an historical conversation- as far as we know)
Dr. Rice
: Mr President, Dick Clarke keeps bugging me to tell you about the threat posed by Osama bin Laden on our soil.
President Bush: Tell him to explain it to me in a PDB. And while you are at it, tell him to quit whining about Osama bin Laden and to help us get Sadam Hussein.

I believe that the crux of the discussion should be whether or not our relative efforts with respect to OBL and SH were appropriate. i.e. perhaps 70 FBI agents was enough, but perhaps the number should have been 350. I have no idea, but I think that it is all about proper proportions.

Sunday, April 11, 2004

Bingo!

Nothing but the bottom of the cup. Phil Mickelson drained his birdie putt on the 72nd hole to win the 2004 Masters. Well done, Phil!

I'm a big fan of Ernie Els, but it was very nice to see Phil finally win a major. This has to go down as one of the best Masters ever.

Go Phil

Since I lost a DQ Blizzard by picking Tiger to win the Masters, I'm now pulling for Phil Mickelson to get the major monkey of his back today at Augusta. Through three rounds he's played like a Masters champion. Let's hope he can continue that for one more round.

Happy Easter

Saturday, April 10, 2004

August 6, 2001 presidential briefing memo released

The Washington Post has published the presidential briefing memo from Aug. 6, 2001. It's not clear what action was warranted based upon that document. The findings are from 1997, 1998, and 1999. There is only one mention of anything more recent than that, specifically suspicious activity which included "recent surveillance of federal buildings in New York."

Here are the final three paragraphs, in full, from that memo:
We have not been able to corroborate some of the more sensational threat reporting, such as that from a ... (redacted portion) ... service in 1998 saying that Bin Ladin wanted to hijack a US aircraft to gain the release of "Blind Shaykh" 'Umar 'Abd al-Rahman and other US-held extremists.

Nevertheless, FBI information since that time indicates patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent with preparations for hijackings or other types of attacks, including recent surveillance of federal buildings in New York.

The FBI is conducting approximately 70 full field investigations throughout the US that it considers Bin Ladin-related. CIA and the FBI are investigating a call to our Embassy in the UAE in May saying that a group of Bin Ladin supporters was in the US planning attacks with explosives.
One month and five days after this memo, al Qaeda hijacked four planes and flew them into three buildings and one empty field (with some help from brave passengers). I don't see anything in this memo that was new or of a specific nature calling for more action than the FBI was already doing.

If you were president on August 6th, what orders would you have issued based upon this memo that weren't warranted at any time in the preceding four years? Beef up security at federal buildings in New York? Search people and vehicles at those buildings for explosives? Make sure nobody gets on an airplane with explosives? Enact something like the Patriot Act to boost law enforcement resources to find the terrorists in the US?

Friday, April 09, 2004

"Western Cannabilism"

Here's an exerpt from a good piece on the current war against Islamofascism by Victor Davis Hanson.
Following the Iranian hostage takeover in 1979, the United States had embraced a quarter-century of appeasement that had resulted in far more American deaths than all those lost during the present war against terrorists abroad — flaming ships, embassies, planes, skyscrapers, and people the wages of its mollifying. And every time in Iraq we have tried to offer conciliation before complete military victory — low profiles, tolerance for looters and militias, allowance for vicious mullahs — we have seen more, not fewer, killed.

The sad truth is that civilization itself is engaged in a worldwide struggle against the barbarism of Islamic fundamentalism. Just this past month the killers and their plots have been uncovered in London, Paris, Madrid, Pakistan, and North Africa — the same tired rhetoric of their hatred echoing from Iraq to the West Bank. While Western elites quibble over exact ties between the various terrorist ganglia, the global viewer turns on the television to see the same suicide bombing, the same infantile threats, the same hatred of the West, the same chants, the same Koranic promises of death to the unbeliever, and the same street demonstrations across the world.

Looking for exact professed cooperation between an Islamic fascist and the rogue regime that finds such anti-Western violence useful is like proving that Mussolini, Tojo, and Hitler all coordinated their attacks and worked in some conspiratorial fashion — when in fact Japan had no knowledge of the invasion of Russia, and Hitler had no warning of Pearl Harbor or Mussolini's invasion of Greece.

In fact, it didn't matter that they were united only by a loose and shared hatred of Western liberalism and emboldened by a decade of democratic appeasement. And our fathers, perhaps better men than we, didn't care too much for beating their breasts about the exact nature of collective Axis strategy or blaming each other for past lapses, but instead went to pretty terrible places like Bastogne, Anzio, and Okinawa to put an end to their enemies all.
Enjoy the rest.

Vietnam and the press

Hugh Hewitt notes that Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez doesn't see the parallel between Iraq and Vietnam. In the same post Hugh, not surprisingly, isn't too impressed with some news analysis he read today in the LA Times.

Fact checking CAP

Center for American Progress has a "Claim vs Fact" piece on Condoleezza Rice's testimony. Which are the facts and which are the claims? Here's someone fact checking the facts of CAP.

UPDATE: Add Stuart Buck to the list of CAP fact checkers. As an aside, I don't know Stuart but I know he suffered two strokes recently at the tender age of 29. Good to see he's back at it.

UPDATE: Add me to the list. Here's an exerpt from CAP's "Claim vs Fact" piece:
CLAIM: "The threat reporting that we received in the Spring and Summer of 2001 was not specific as to...manner of attack."

FACT: ABC News reported, Bush Administration "officials acknowledged that U.S. intelligence officials informed President Bush weeks before the Sept. 11 attacks that bin Laden's terrorist network might try to hijack American planes." Dateline NBC reported that on August 6, 2001, the President personally "received a one-and-a-half page briefing advising him that Osama bin Laden was capable of a major strike against the US, and that the plot could include the hijacking of an American airplane." Rice herself actually admitted this herself, saying the Aug. 6 briefing the President received said "terrorists might attempt to hijack a U.S. aircraft." [Sources: ABC News, 5/16/02; NBC, 9/10/02]


That looks pretty damning. Rice testifies that no specific manner of threat was reported while she admitted that al Qaeda plans included hijacking. Was there anything new in that August of 2001 briefing indicating that al Qaeda planned to hijack planes in the U.S.? Not according to Democratic Senator Bob Graham, ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee:
Sen. Bob Graham (D.-Fla.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told HUMAN EVENTS May 21 that his committee had received all the same terrorism intelligence prior to September 11 as the Bush administration.

"Yes, we had seen all the information," said Graham. "But we didn't see it on a single piece of paper, the way the President did."

Graham added that threats of hijacking in an August 6 memo to President Bush were based on very old intelligence that the committee had seen earlier. "The particular report that was in the President's Daily Briefing that day was about three years old," Graham said. "It was not a contemporary piece of information."

Graham's comments contradicted combative statements made recently by the Democratic congressional leadership, and confirmed White House assertions that the only specific threats of al Qaeda hijackings known to the President before September 11 came from a memo dating back to the Clinton Administration.
I don't think that's the impression left by the Center for American Progress in its "FACT" statement above.

Thanks to Pejman Yousefzadeh for the link.

These are good signs

Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd may be playing the Vietnam card, but other Democrats understand the situation in Iraq. This James Lileks piece indicates that both Tom Daschle and Evan Baye get it:
"America will not be intimidated by barbaric acts whose only goal is to spread fear and chaos throughout Iraq," Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, South Dakota Democrat, said in a moving floor speech last Thursday after the initial attacks that began the weeklong string of violence. "Yesterday's events will only serve to strengthen America's resolve and seal America's unity. The brave people who lost their lives did not die in vain. Americans stand together today and always to finish the work we started and bring peace and democracy to the citizens of Iraq," he said.

Mr. Daschle repeated those sentiments to reporters yesterday, and Sen. Evan Bayh, Indiana Democrat, said on NBC's "Today" show that the United States must "stay the course." "This is really as much a test of our perseverance as anything else," he said, though he cautioned that Americans must be prepared for the conflict. "It's going to be difficult. We're going to have too many days ahead of tragedy like yesterday, unfortunately."
So does Bob Kerrey (more here).

Thursday, April 08, 2004

Income by quintile

Although the data on burden of federal taxes paid wasn't simply income taxes, the tables below show the share of aggregate income broken down by quintiles.

The first table is for families.

Share of aggregate income
----------------------------------------------------------
Year Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest
fifth fifth fifth fifth fifth
----------------------------------------------------------
2001 4.2 9.7 15.4 22.9 47.7
----------------------------------------------------------

The second table is for households.
                 Share of aggregate income               

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Year Number Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest
(thous.) fifth fifth fifth fifth fifth
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 109,297 3.5 8.7 14.6 23.0 50.1

Danger in a democracy

By the data I linked to below, the total percentage of federal taxes paid by the top 20% of income earners in this country is 65.3% for the latest year available. That's not enough for some people. Democrats, generally what I call liberal Democrats, call for that to increase. They say that the rich don't pay enough. Now to their credit, these liberal Democrats are themselves in the upper income groups. So they're at least advocating something that burdens them, unlesss they avail themselves of the myriad tax deductions available to them to minimize their taxes. But I'll even concede that it's fair for them to do that while advocating higher tax rates on the rich, that is on themselves.

What concerns me is that we have a situation where the bottom 80% of income earners pay less than 35% (and falling) of all federal taxes. In a democracy it's tempting to vote yourself money from someone else's pocket. The bottom three quintiles produce a clear majority. Those bottom three quintiles now pay only 15.1% of all federal taxes. That leaves 40% of the people paying almost 85% of the federal taxes. At what point does the ability of the majority to tax the minority become a problem?

While I don't have a problem with slightly progressive tax structures, I think some sort of rules should be adopted that limit the ability of a larger group to vote themselves a smaller tax burden while increasing the burden on a smaller group. My personal suggestion is to move to a consumption tax instead of an income tax. Our founders were a clever group and they did not admit income taxes into the federal tax structure. It took a constitutional amendment to do that. Maybe it's time we rethink the wisdom of that amendment and move toward a consumption tax. Of course, why would the 60% who pay so little now be in favor of that? Maybe because while the 15% they pay is miniscule in the overall picture, that 15% amounts to a significant hit on their monthly bottom line. A move to a consumption tax with several thousand dollars exempted at the bottom might make their situation better, while stopping a dangerous trend in income taxation.

Taxes and the rich

Here's a link that looks at the data on taxes broken down by quintile. After looking at that chart I need to ask Rhoads and Warren Buffett where they get the idea that Bush is favoring the rich with his tax cuts, and just how much of the tax burden should be paid by the top 20% of taxpayers. Looks like the bottom 40% paid about 6% of all federal taxes in 2001 compared to about 7% during the Clinton years.

Tyler Cowen has some comments on these figures including some cautions over at the Marginal Revolution web site.

UPDATE: Another blogger takes issue with the use of averages for the 1990s compared to just 2001 figures in the post I linked to above. It's a fair criticism. Econopundit responds to the criticism.

Front page, baby

All you can really see is my orange Princeton hat, but sure enough I made the front page of today's Daily Camera. Go to this story and click on the picture of Gary Barnett and Jeremy Bloom to enlarge it. My hat is just left of Gary Barnett's collar.

In the print edition I'm page one, above the fold. Sweet. It's all about me.

Wednesday, April 07, 2004

Right on

Rhoads' link to this post on Buffett is a good one. I don't agree with Buffett on some things, but I agree with the writer that dismissing Buffett because he's a liberal Democrat, or simply by calling him a liberal Democrat, is stupid. Buffett is a very smart man who should be listened to on any topic he chooses to discuss publicly. He isn't right all time, that's obvious and he acknowledges it, but he's right more often than he's wrong.

Buffett will also tell you he's no better than the second smartest man at Berkshire. Charlie Munger, Berkshire's Vice Chairman, is otherworldly smart. Charlie has influenced my intellectual direction as much as anyone in the last decade. This Munger speech on Worldly Wisdom is very good.

Wal-Mart

We don't have to get into this if you don't want to. I think Wal-Mart's remarkable record of success speaks for itself. It is imaginable that a company can be terrible to its employees yet thrives wherever it goes, but boy it takes a good imagination to see it. The largest company (by dollar volume of sales) in the world, even the most admired one, is bound to attract some negative stories. If you're big enough, the tiny proportion of bad stories can seem like a lot. Very large numbers lead to that sort of thing. I'm not interested enough to comb the web for the good stories of Wal-Mart helping employees, contributing to local communities and so forth, but I bet even the untold good stories (good news doesn't sell too well) dwarf the bad ones your site collects.

Sam Walton was indeed proud that products sold in Wal-Mart were Made in America. Goes to show you that even the world's richest man can be ignorant of basic economics. Go figure. Sam was a merchant, not an economist. Sam's been dead for about ten years now or I'd send him a 150-year old copy of David Ricardo's work. It may not have helped. Some people just can't grasp comparative advantage. Luckily we all benefit from it in spite of the widespread ignorance.

Now I'm off to drink some Colorado coffee. Oh wait. I think I'll have some fruit instead. Oh wait, it's not in season in this country. I'll just head to the store in my Volvo...oops. Hey, where was this computer made anyway? Taiwan. Jeez, my calculator was made in China (at least Taiwan is relatively free, unlike China). I can't win. Maybe if I try really hard I can get by on only Made in the USA products. But why stop there? If I shouldn't go outside the USA for my products, should I go outside Colorado? Boulder County? The city? My block? My house? Goodness, must I do it all myself? Poverty. Ill health. Short life expectancy. Like the good old days. When mercantilism ruled.

Buffett

Warren Buffett is no left-wing nut, but he is a liberal Democrat. I don't know him personally, but I don't think Warren Buffett would quibble much with that, well any more than any of us tend to quibble when we're labeled.

I'll take a quick (or not so quick) shot at clarifying what I mean by a "liberal Democrat." Just saying that Warren Buffett, or anyone else, is a Democrat isn't really sufficient to describe their viewpoint. Generally when I say Democrat, what I really mean is liberal Democrat because I'm too lazy to write liberal all the time in front and because I think conservative Democrats are dwindling in number (or switching parties). Zell Miller of Georgia and perhaps John Breaux of Louisiana still qualify. In some respects, principally foreign policy, Joe Lieberman comes off as somewhat conservative. But the run of the mill Democrat is what I refer to as a liberal Democrat.

The liberal Democrat position amounts to favoring steeply progressive taxes, estate taxes, broad governmental regulation of business, an oddly illiberal (in my view) paternalistic streak when it comes to smoking, drinking, eating fatty foods and so forth. The liberal Democrat is pro-choice (on abortion), anti-gun, not particularly pro-military or its use, pro-union (especially teachers' unions), in favor of federal funding and oversight of education, medical care, and welfare programs. The liberal Democrat is generally less interested in where wealth comes from (Buffett fails this one big time) than in its distribution (he passes this test). Liberal Democrats are advocates of civil liberties (except those arising from the Second, Ninth, and Tenth Amendments), and are pro-affirmative action. I think that hits the high notes. These are generalities, of course.

Likewise calling someone a Republican isn't really good enough, either. Back when I paid far more attention to these things than I do now (tough to believe, I know), there were liberal Republicans (Jeffords was one, Lincoln Chaffey, Lowell Weicker) and conservative Repbublicans (which included religious and social conservatives plus, oddly, libertarian Republicans). I say the inclusion of libertarian Republicans with the conservative Republicans was/is odd because there are such fundamental differences between the social/religious conservatives and libertarians that to lump them together on the basis of their few agreements seems dopey. The two groups do generally favor lower taxes and less government involvement in business affairs, but I think that's about where the similarities end. Conservative Republicans share (oddly) the paternalistic streak of the liberal Democrats, but the values they want imposed by government are quite dissimilar. Social and religious conservative Republicans don't want evolution taught in public schools, but they do want prayer, the Ten Commandments, and (very oddly) the Pledge of Allegiance in the classrooms. They oppose abortion, gay marriage, prostitution, pornography, drug use, and speech they find offensive or they disagree with (which they oddly share with the radical left who dominate colleges and universities). They tend to be pro-military, though a faction of what I call social and religious conservatives (think Pat Buchanan) are isolationist and mercantilist (they think foreign producers impoverish us). This sort of conservative Republican is also anti-immigration, and anti-civil rights (except the one's from the Second, Fourth, Fifth, Ninth and Tenth Amendments).

I could go on, but mercifully I'll stop. You get the idea.

I think Warren Buffett, to get back to the point of all this, falls into the liberal Democrat camp because he agrees with most (though certainly not all) of the liberal Democratic positions. As you noted he is pro-choice, he favors progressive taxation, favors the estate tax (though the Buffett Foundation will receive his wealth on death--go figure), does not favor vouchers for failing public schools (or he didn't six years ago when I heard him address the issue), he supports civil rights (even his right to belong to an all-male club), dropped his Omaha Country Club membership because it wouldn't admit Jews, and he supported Hillary Clinton's Senate campaign (need I say more!). Oh, did I mention that his wife lives in San Francisco and he lives in Omaha with a woman named Astrid. Sort of looks like he's a swinger, doesn't it? So, yes, he is a liberal Democrat, I think, as I define it. He's a Democrat for sure. He's not a southern, conservative Democrat, so he's a liberal Democrat. But he's not a far left nut. Not at all.

Apparently he is pro-choice as well

Although the way this article put it you would think that he is for requiring abortion all the time. Apparently his support of pro-choice causes makes him a left wing nut, though. Maybe I will start going to Dairy Queen again...

And switch my car insurance...

Warren's a Liberal Democrat?

OK, OK. So I know that Bob knows a LOT more about Warren Buffett than I do. I mean A LOT more. I mean A LOT more. I mean A WHOLE LOT MORE. And I could even see that Mr. Buffett is a Democrat. But a liberal Democrat? I mean I find that hard to believe. Can you back that up, other than be referencing the fact that he calls the reckless Bush tax cuts exactly what they are: giveaways to the super rich? This is almost as good as Wal-Mart.

The Case Against Wal-Mart

Well, I was hoping that we wouldn't get into the Wal-Mart thing, but oh well. If you want to read some detailed accounts of why Wal-Mart is not a good place, then check out Wal-Mart Watch. Now slam them all you want, but they make some good points, which I won't really go into tonight.

However, I will make two points about Wal-Mart. One is that this is no longer Sam's Wal-Mart. Sam prided himself - at one point, anyway - on the fact that everything in the store was "Made in America." Not sure whether that changed in his lifetime or not, but it has changed.

Another is a personal anecdote. I have a friend, now deceased, who was very poor and worked in a Wal-Mart in South Carolina. She also worked at a K-Mart in the same town, at the same time. Why? Because she and a large majority of the mostly poor folks working at both of those stores were not given enough hours per week to allow them to qualify for benefits from either place. It wasn't that they didn't want full-time jobs - they just weren't allowed to have them from either store. That allowed the stores to boast about how many people they employed, when in reality they only employed "half-people" as it were. But she needed the work, and so she schlepped back and forth between the two companies and relied on Medicaid for her health insurance. Which was a real problem for her when she got breast cancer. This was about ten years ago, and she was a poor black woman in rural South Carolina, but I am lead to believe that the same tale is told in many Wal-Marts. But it helps them keep their prices low.

Anyway, I won't shop at Wal-Mart, so I guess it is time to get into this discussion.

On luck and the NCAA hoops contest

Not sure how I did this, so I won't try to play HTML wizard again. But below are some five year totals from the Ron McBay Invitational. I was thinking that the more years we included, the worse I'd do. As far as me relative to Ron, that proved true. Ron really follows college hoops, so if this thing isn't all luck, the more years we do, the better he should do relatively. Given that Grant Wahl also knows what he's doing, and given that I'm sort of the secretary in the office pool, it looks like luck still plays a pretty big role. I don't just throw a dart or pick based upon mascots, mind you, but given how many points are at stake in the later rounds, getting a champion right, or a couple of the final four right can make anyone look pretty smart pretty quickly. Had Duke beaten UConn this year, Rhoads would have been well ahead of me both this year and in the three and five year averages. Maybe because of a goofey call or a bounce here or there, I look like I know what I'm doing. Randomness is funny that way.
Ron McBay                         87.4

Bob Bateman                       86.5
NCAA SEEDING COMMITTEE   86.4
SPORTS ILLUSTRATED(GWahl) 84.6
Rhoads Hollowell                  82.8

Bloom case

So will Jeremy Bloom win his appeal? If you're not familiar with case, Bloom is a football player for the University of Colorado who also happens to be a world-class skier. For two years Bloom has had to turn down endorsement money from skiing companies in order to play football as an amateur for CU. Seems reasonable enough until you realize that the NCAA allows professionals in one sport to compete as amateurs in another. What they won't allow is Bloom to accept skiing endorsement money and play college football as an amateur. He can accept prize money, but not endorsement money.

It seemed to me that Bloom's attorney got the better of it today, but the three judges asked intelligent and tough questions to both sides. Since I'm no lawyer, I have no idea how this appeal will turn out.

Luckily I don't have to be a lawyer to offer an opinion on what should happen as a result of this case. I think the NCAA should make clear that any endorsements that are related to a specific sport, or are demonstrably coming to you because of your skill in a specific sport, are prohibited. They should allow a professional athlete in one sport to receive endorsement dollars for his participation in that sport without jeopardizing his amateur status in another sport. As long as they allow professional athletes in one sport to compete as amateurs for colleges in another sport that seems to be a reasonable policy to me.

That's my specific opinion on the Bloom matter. I think a better option would be to simply admit that big-time college sports, specifically football and basketball (and maybe hockey) at certain schools, is a big business. The players should be paid. The players should not be compelled to attend classes. The teams should be self-financed, receiving no aid from the universities, especially public universities. The teams could still use on-campus facilities, the mascots and logos of the schools, and employ students as managers, trainers, and so forth. The teams would, of course, pay for the use of the facilities and they would have to work out some licensing agreement to use the school's name. Such an arrangement would benefit the schools whose students, alumni, and fans in general clearly enjoy watching their teams and enjoy knowing that their school plays big-time sports. The faculty could be comforted in knowing that seats in the classrooms and dollars from the education budget were not going to athletes who were not as highly qualified and motivated to be students as the next best applicant they replace under the current system.

Nonrevenue sports (which is defined as any sport that cannot support itself fully) would simply return to normal extracurricular status. There doesn't seem to be any good reason to recruit (to pick on my own sport) tennis players world-wide, and then send the team around the country playing tennis matches for the glory of good old State U. Let those teams be populated by students who are interested in playing a sport while they are in college just like high schools do. Those "small-time" sports would be available as an enhancement, a participatory enhancement instead of a viewing enhancement, to normal student life. All the lessons of sportsmanship, teamwork, competition, dedication and so forth would be available for students who want to go out for the team. Those nonrevenue sports could rightly be funded (though not to the extent they are now) from typical educational sources.

Now my old college friend, Colin Harris, might disagree with me on that. Colin is one of the lawyers for the NCAA in this matter. I had hoped to see Colin present his case in the courtroom today. Alas it wasn't to be. All Colin did was introduce another NCAA lawyer in town from Shawnee Mission, KS who presented their side today. In my inexpert opinion, she did not do too well. I think Colin would have done better. Oh well. The law may very well be on her side anyway which would mean she'll win regardless of how persuasive she was today.

The Daily Camera carried a story on the Bloom case in today's sports section.

I have presented my thoughts on the general topic of college sports on this blog before. In that prior post I included a link to an essay by Eugene Volokh of the UCLA Law School that I think is also worth reading.

I won't play the "I'm a Regent" card

This afternoon I attended the Appeals Court hearing regarding Jeremy Bloom's case against the NCAA. Regent Susan Kirk arrived after the procedings began, and well after the court room at CU's Fleming Law Building had filled beyond capacity. According to her web site, linked above, Regent Kirk can be reached at the law firm representing the NCAA in the case, Holme, Roberts & Owen LLC. So clearly this case is of interest to her.

So what's my gripe? She played the "I'm a Regent" card in order to get a seat. That's so uncool.

My first campaign pledge: I won't play the "I'm a Regent" card to cut in lines, to get a better table at restaurants, or to pick up chicks. You have my word.

War on the rural and urban poor

Steven Malanga has a piece in today's Wall Street Journal titled "The War on Wal-Mart". I have the print edition, but the online version is available, though it's subscription only. It's well worth the read, really much better than my ramblings based upon it below, but then he's a pro and I'm a guy in a garden level apartment.

By most accounts Wal-Mart is an American success story. Founded by Sam Walton over forty years ago, Wal-Mart grew to dominate retail by essentially inventing the discounting model: offer good products at low prices. Recently Wal-Mart was named "Most Admired" by Fortune magazine, getting the vote of Berkshire Hathaway Chairman, and liberal Democrat, Warren Buffett. Wal-Mart's IT innovations have helped Amazon.com and nearly every other retailer offer goods to their customers at lower prices. So how is it that a company beloved in rural America and now welcomed by urban communities became an enemy of the left worthy of boycotts and lawsuits? Wal-Mart, of all companies, detested by the left, supposed friend of the consumer, advocate for the little guy. How strange.

The case against Wal-Mart appears to boil down to gripes about low wages and a lack of benefits offered by Wal-Mart to its employees. Prospective workers appear to disagree. In Los Angeles, the Crenshaw Plaza Wal-Mart had 10,000 job applicants, despite the Urban League telling people not to apply. Despite the cries of crummy jobs at low wages, the reality looks to be that Wal-Mart offers pretty good wages for entry level workers and, given the company's growth, even attracts people with career aspirations.

What about the opposition to the company by local communities? Sure some anti-growth, anti-sprawl people don't want to see a new Wal-Mart come to their area. Neither do competitors? Why not? Because people, that is customers and members of the communities, flock to Wal-Mart in droves. They love the place. Regarding the LA store I mentioned above, this is what coucilman Bernard Parks had to say in today's WSJ:
"It's those who don't live in this community who did the most objecting to this store. The community has clearly spoken and it supports this store."
It's a similar story in Hartford. The locals were thrilled to bring in a Wal-Mart to a poor part of town, but outside radicals (ACORN who I've noted before advocate living wages but don't pay them) and the Connecticut chapter of the food and commercial workers union objected. That didn't please the locals. They wanted the Wal-Mart.

The battle against Wal-Mart looks like a battle of union officials and suburban and urban elites (that would be the rich folks who don't much bother with Wal-Mart anyway) against regular people who want to shop and work at a store that offers good products at great prices. Shame on ol' Sam for providing such a fantastic service to his fellow man.

I have another theory

I have another theory about what one might mean when he or she refers to Vietnam. It might mean "a war which we thought would be won quickly and decisevly, and instead dragged on and got the people in the United States upset about our presence."

Just a thought..

What did Ted Kennedy mean by Bush's Vietnam?

The usually reasonable Eugene Volokh doesn't disappoint as he examines the debate.

Congratulations to Bob

Well, the annual Ron McBay March Madness hoops tourney is over, and even though neither Bob nor I was the winner this year, I have to take my hat off to Bob for his consistent performance for the last 3 years. Here are both of our numbers, with Ron's thrown in for good measure.

POINTS FULLNAME                       YEARS  2004  2003  2002

------ ------------------------------ ----- ------ ------ ------
 245.5 Bob Bateman                        3   99.0   70.0   76.5
229.0 Ron McBay                          3   72.0   81.5   75.5
 202.5 Rhoads Hollowell                   3   69.0   56.0   77.5



Good job, Bob! At least I beat you back in 2002!

Nah, Rhoads got it right

I really meant the graph he posted. I just couldn't resist cutting and pasting and seeing if I could recreate the HTML mastery of the BRG Chief Technology Officer.

HTML playtime

Maybe I meant this one.

You can call even though they may not answer

That group you linked to below looks pretty partisan to me. They should pay their taxes, too. Don't let your call for CAP to come clean ride on somebody else coming clean. Just because one guy steals, I don't think it's unwise to ask a different guy not to steal. Now maybe being non-partisan shouldn't be a requirement for tax-exempt status, but since it is, these organizations don't look to me like they qualify.

I could jump to the Republican group's defense and say that at least they're not advocating bigger government programs and higher taxes while at the same time dodging taxes. But sadly I suspect that's not the case. They're just advocating different, bigger goverment programs most likely.

Tax Deductible Organizations

Well, I guess I could see a call for American Progress to give up their tax-exempt status if The National Center for Public Policy Research gives up theirs. From the bottom of that page:
The National Center is a 501(c)(3) organization under the Internal Revenue Code. Donations to The National Center and its projects are tax-deductible and greatly appreciated.

Graphs and HTML

Is this the graph?

Bob should have watched this Daily Show episode

Bob, I just got around to watching The Daily Show with Jon Stewart from Monday night. I am sure that you probably would not like that show in general, but you should have seen Monday's episode. The upshot is that I got this link from his special guest, which I am sure you will find extremely useful.

Social Security lock box

Arnold Kling takes a good look at a couple of arguments regarding privatizing Social Security. One argument against privatization and one argument for it are found wanting. It's a good overall look at Social Security.

I find it ironic that a system that heavily taxes low income workers on their first dollar earned in order to pay benefits to a wealthier group of retirees is such a favorite of Democrats. If you believe that Republicans like to soak the poor to support the rich, you could see why a Republican might like the current system. But what makes it so popular among Democrats?

Debates about whether the system as a whole is worth having aside, I find it hard to believe it makes sense to keep the retirement age anywhere near where it was in the late 1930s when Social Security was first adopted. Life expectancies were around 60 for most workers, and only about 63 for the population at large when 65 was adopted as "the" retirement age. Bumping that up, over time, to something like 70 or higher (still well below the current life expectancies of about 77) seems like a good way to control costs.

If people save their own money and want to stop working in their fifties or sixties, like my parents did, that's fine with me, but don't send me the bill. I don't like a system that provides an incentive for able bodied, though aging, people to live off of other people who can't opt out of that funding obligation. A system that provides for people, whatever age, who cannot work makes a lot more sense to me. But then, I don't depend upon the votes of the AARP membership to keep my job.

Should we risk our lives and take the plunge?

Here's an interesting post on health care in the U.S. The author suggests that maybe it's time we bite the bullet and finish the job we've already started by nationalizing health care in the U.S. But where will Canadians go for treatment if we do?

UPDATE: Sasha Volokh reacts to the above post.

It's warm in Boulder today

Does this mean the globe is warming? I tried to post this graph of average global temperatures captured by satellite from January of 1979 through April of 2003, but I couldn't figure out how to do it.

UPDATE: Did I say it was warm today in Boulder? Well it was warm. Now it's breezy and cold with some dark clouds coming in from over the mountains. Weather's hard to predict even when you're looking out the window as I am right now.

Do I get a tax break for donating to Rush?

The "nonpartisan" tag is funny, but since Rhoads acknowledges that it's not really true, this might be a problem:
The Center for American Progress has been incorporated and will be operated as a public charity. It has received official IRS recognition of its tax exempt status under sections 501(c)(3) and 501(a)(9)(1) of the Internal Revenue Code. Our federal ID number is 30-0126510. Donations will be tax deductible and disclosed to the IRS.
I hope the Center for American Progress isn't advocating higher taxes or bigger government programs and then allowing tax deductions for people who give them money to so advocate.

If we can agree that CAP is not "nonpartisan" I think Rhoads should join me in calling for them to give up their tax-exempt status. Argue for your cause. Put out research papers. Attack Republicans. By all means have at it. But if you are partisan, please help the rest of us pull the wagon by paying taxes.

P.S. I did read a paper on the site, Six Steps to a Safer America, that I thought was quite good.

Good article

I just read article linked below. It's very good and informative. I tend to agree that just getting bin Laden wasn't enough before 9/11 and its not enough now. However, I agree with Clarke's reply, under oath, to former Senator Slade Gorton during Clarke's 9/11 Commmission testimony, that had the Bush Administration followed Clarke's advice they would not have prevented 9/11:
GORTON: Now, since my yellow light is on, at this point my final question will be this: Assuming that the recommendations that you made on January 25th of 2001, based on Delenda, based on Blue Sky, including aid to the Northern Alliance, which had been an agenda item at this point for two and a half years without any action, assuming that there had been more Predator reconnaissance missions, assuming that that had all been adopted say on January 26th, year 2001, is there the remotest chance that it would have prevented 9/11?

CLARKE: No.


As I've said repeatedly, the Bush Administration failed to urgently address the threat posed by terrorism before 9/11. Despite the meetings and so forth, so did the Clinton Administration. That's regrettable but understandable. Given the anti-war left's antipathy to pre-emptive strikes, I have a hard time believing they would have supported a new cowboy president attacking terrorist camps in Afghanistan with killer drones on the word of some CIA-type spooks. But like what could have, should have, or would have happened had we done things differently before 9/11, we'll never know.

Old newspapers

Well, I have to agree with Bob that looking at old newspapers can be really helpful when trying to personally figure out what is going on. For example, any newspaper account which discusses the interaction between Richard Clarke and Condi Rice which is more than two years old is very helpful.

Center for American Progress

LOL. Well, I would say that the CAP is non partisan in the same way that Rush Limbaugh or Al Franken or most "non-partisan" think tanks are non patisan. That is, they are all biased, and some of them heavily so, but they aren't techincally affiliated with any political party. So I agree that CAP saying non partisan is a joke, but then Rush Limbaugh claims about 20 times per hour that he has "the truth."

As far as whether or not terror was the highest priority for Clinton - I would guess not. Should it have been? However, from what I have heard from Clarke, when he (Clarke) raised a big flag and told Clinton to raise the terror alert, Clinton did that. Did it help? Well, if an attack doesn't happen, how do you know?

Tuesday, April 06, 2004

More on the Clinton Administration and terrorism

How focused was the Clinton Administration on terror? Was it their highest priority? What did Sandy Berger have to say about Iraq? Well, in the Dec/Nov 2000 issue of Foreign Affairs, Bill Clinton's National Security Adviser said we should:
"intensify both our planning for a post Saddam Iraq, and our efforts to speed its arrival."
While he didn't mention al Qaeda or bin Laden, he did mention ousting Saddam. Maybe he didn't mean it. But if he did, maybe the differences between the Bush and Clinton Administrations weren't as big before 9/11 as some partisans are now claiming.

Al Franken might want to look into this

Rhoads has a new favorite called the Center for American Progress. The first sentence on the site's "About Us" web page reads:
The Center for American Progress is a nonpartisan research and educational institute dedicated to promoting a strong, just and free America that ensures opportunity for all Americans.
I believe that says "nonpartisan" does it not? Funny, I saw a lot of criticisms of Republicans, yet I didn't see anything critical of any Democrats. Maybe that's why Rhoads claims Clarke isn't a partisan. Attacking Republicans and not Democrats is nonpartisan.

Laurie Mylroie

I agree that Laurie Mylroie looks like a woman with only a hammer imagining that everything she sees is a nail. I won't go so far as to say she never sees any nails, but her credibility is questionable to say the least.

Did you trust the CIA when it said that Iraq either had or was trying to build nuclear, chemical and biological weapons before we went in?

Why is he not pissed at the Clinton Administration?

Funny that Clarke isn't busting on the administration that he served for eight years before being demoted by the Bush Administration. The prior administration, by its own NSS from January 2000, paid no more attention to al Qaeda than the Bush Administration did before 9/11. But you're right, Clarke's not partisan. Maybe he's covering his fanny because counterterrorism was his job and he failed it under Clinton and under Bush, well, before being demoted (as he wrote in his book but, um, failed to tell you in his convincing TV appearances). At least Clinton may have listened to him and ignored him. I guess that makes him feel better.

Oh, any mention of the Clinton National Security Statement from 2000 in your main stream media outlets, yet? It would be controversial to point out the conflict between the priorities listed in that public document and the story that Clarke is now telling. But then, that's not the story they feel like telling is it? Nope, like you, as long as it discredits the Bush Administration, the story's left unchecked. It's fine with them. Nice to see you at least admit that discrediting the Bush Administration is good. The reporters feign objectivity.

Grind that axe!!

Richard Clarke is grinding an axe. And he should be. But the axe is his particular case is not a partisan axe. It is a I-told-you-so-and-you-refused-to-listen-to-me-you-guys-are-knuckleheads axe. He's pissed. I have said that before. But he is also right. And the democrats are using him in a partisan way to discredit the Bush Administration. Good for them.

Laurie Mylroie vs. the CIA

Here is a link to an "online" interview with Laurie Mylroie back in October, 2001. To me, this is the most interesting quote:
I don't think that the oil situation is a factor. I think that at least two things are at work. First, there is a great confusion because for eight years Clinton treated terrorism as a law enforcement issue, with the emphasis on arresting individuals and bringing them to justice, trying and convicting them. That had the effect of obscuring the role of states in terrorism, particularly Iraq. But in addition, those who went along with his view of terrorism are now personally invested in it, and they are reluctant to give up that view. That would include George Tenet, a Clinton appointee who still heads the CIA, and I believe, the intelligence coming from the CIA is skewed. It may also be that there is an influence of former President Bush and Bush's top advisors from the 1991 Gulf War on President Bush. Some of those people, including former President Bush, Brent Scocroft, his national security advisor, Colin Powell, have not acknowledged that it was an error to end the war in 1991 with Saddam in power, and that may color their judgment now.

No I don't think that oil is (much of) a factor either, but the rest of the paragraph speaks volumes about Ms. Mylroie. Basically, it appears that she is saying that the CIA is wrong and she is right. For all of their faults, and they have many, I think I will trust the CIA more than I trust her.

I also find it interesting that she talks about how the folks who disagree with her (and with whom she disagrees) have a particular view and that they "are now personally invested in it." Seems to me like the pot calling they kettle black. I trust the CIA's objectivity way more than hers. But that's just me.

Grinding an axe

If Clarke isn't grinding an axe, why does he give the impression that the Bush Administration was drastically different from the Clinton Administration when it comes to pre-9/11 counterterrism? Here's a link pointing out that the Clinton Administration ranked missile defense ahead of terrorism in it's 2000 national security report. Missile defense. One of the crazy Bush ideas. And I'll be darned if the Clinton national security report never mentions al Qaeda. It does mention bin Laden four times. That's once every 11,250 words for an urgent priority of the Clarke/Clinton Administration.

Clarke has raised some serious issues. The issues reflect as poorly on the Clinton Administration and on Clarke as they do on the Bush Administration. Clearly before 9/11 we, meaning our elected officials and their bureaucratic minions, dropped the ball when it came to recognizing and especially fighting the threat posed by al Qaeda. I don't think anyone questions that. What they question is the credibility and motivations of the accuser, Richard Clarke. He has an axe to grind and it looks to be a political axe. Big surprise that political people would fire back at him in a political year.

Getting elected is what politicians do. Keeping their jobs and increasing their staffs and budgets is what bureaucrats do. That's why Thoreau said, "That government is best which governs least." Unfortunately, national security is one of those areas where govenment has to do its job. Since governments do nothing particularly well, it should come as no surprise that governments fail regularly at this vital task, too.

The Big 39

Happy Birthday to Kim Hollowell

Monday, April 05, 2004

Demotion

Well, Richard Clarke says he was not demoted, but maybe he doesn't know that much, or is lying. Didn't seem like it to me, though.

Read this article

Here is an article about Laurie Mylroie which explains a lot to me. The woman's obsessed, and is tilting at windmills. Sorry, but you will have to do better than her. She sounds exactly as arrogant as Richard Clarke, only she does not have the experience, and is, well, wrong. But her book makes for good foreign policy, apparently. I guess Iraq attacked Kuwait so they could switch the people around and give us the slip. Sounds great.

I may be wrong, but I'm not demonstrably wrong

You wrote that Clarke "was also NOT 'demoted'" on this very blog. That's apparently not what it says in Clarke's book.

According to Slate's executive summary of Clarke's book, here's one of the things the Bush Administration did wrong:
Pages 229-30, 234: Demoted Clarke. When the administration took office, Condoleezza Rice kept Clarke on staff. But she downgraded his position so that as national counterterrorism coordinator he no longer reported directly to Cabinet-level officials.
Maybe your credible guy hasn't left that impression in his TV appearances.